Weather forecasting

KTMphil

KTMphil

Senior member
Joined
Jan 11, 2011
Location
Chiang Mai, Thailand
Bikes
2007 KTM 990 Adventure Suzuki DRZ 400
There's many satellite weather sites out there, but not many decent free sites that can give you an accurate rain forecast.

One of the best free sites for forecasts is:


http://www.passageweather.com/


Pick the region square you want (for here yellow square then red square), then pick the middle tab "visibility & precipitation", then then scroll down to the second image down for rain forecasts. Use the "next" button to see forward every 6 hours. Remember times shown are UTC / GMT (U.K) so add 7 hours for Thailand time.

There is a button to animate too, which gives a good feel of what will happen. Why this is so good is that its not lagging data its forecasting what will happen. Most weather sites just show current rain data as weather maps.


rain by Triangle Golden 007, on Flickr

There is even the option to download the rain forecasts.


There are loads of "screenshot" satellite image websites, make sure the image you look at is current time.


TMD is useful for the north:

http://www.tmd.go.th/en/region.php?RegionID=1


TMD satellite imagery

http://www.sattmet.tmd.go.th/satmet/mergesat.html


Lagging weather charts ( be careful its current what your looking at)

http://www.tmd.go.th/en/weather_map.php
 
Some interesting forcasts coming up from

https://forecast.predictwind.com/atlas/#Rain


Today's (Thursday 5th January, 2017) horrible weather associated with a low pressure system in the Indian Ocean pulling moist air towards it, in a line that covers Chiang Mai.


Blue lines/ colours are rain.


wx thurs by Triangle Golden 007, on Flickr


Current forecasts show the rain to disappear in a few days. Then look at Wednesday 11th January, 2017 next week. The low over the Indian Ocean moves northwards. The forecasts say if it doesnt move west it could bring rain to north Thailand & western north Laos.

Also look at the low moving north west in the South China Sea, this could bring associated rain late next week to south Laos.



wx wed 11 jan by Triangle Golden 007, on Flickr
 
If you're planning off road late next week (Thurs 12th January, 2017 - Tuesday 17th January, 2017), you might want to keep an eye on the 7 day forecast around Chiang Mai/ north Thailand.


The low over the Indian Ocean, is forecast to change course and head NE straight for Chiang Mai around Friday 13th January, 2017.

wx fri 1 by Triangle Golden 007, on Flickr




Below is the forecast low and associated rain for Midnight on Friday 13th January, 2017. Chiang Mai is the green dot, the low is forecast currently to pass right over Chiang Mai & north Thailand, bringing heavy rain for several days. Its a long term forecast and often wrong but raises awareness.


wx fri 2 by Triangle Golden 007, on Flickr
 
Current forecast is for the rain associated with the low over Indian Ocean (Andaman Sea) to last until Thursday 12th January 2017. Friday 13th January, 2017, the low moving north easterly, fades out (not being fed by the warm ocean). Friday maybe clear and sunny.

Wednesday 11 Januray, 2017 forecast - Shows as broken rain around north Thailand

wed 11 by Triangle Golden 007, on Flickr



Thursday 12th January, 2017 - Pretty much the same, looks like slightly more chance of rain

thurs 12 by Triangle Golden 007, on Flickr


Friday 13th January, 2017, by the end of the day all clear again

sat 14 by Triangle Golden 007, on Flickr



Keeping an eye on the low headed westwards from the Philippines, even by Monday next week, doesnt seem to threaten Laos or Thailand with rain and will move north easterly.


mon 16 by Triangle Golden 007, on Flickr
 
It was forecast 75% chance of rain for Mae Sariang and also in Hot today but apart from a heavy 30 minute shower about two hours ago no rain at all.

I didn't go out as my tracks are at Bo Luang which is over 1000 metres and between the two towns and possibly it was as forecast there
 
Captain_Slash said:
It was forecast 75% chance of rain for Mae Sariang and also in Hot today but apart from a heavy 30 minute shower about two hours ago no rain at all.

I didn't go out as my tracks are at Bo Luang which is over 1000 metres and between the two towns and possibly it was as forecast there
Click to expand...


Colin took a look at Mae Sariang for Wed 11th Jan 2017, looks like the low as it fades is heading straight for you (rainy and damp in cnx now). Once the low pressure systems hit the land, they are no longer fed by the warm, moist, air over the tropical ocean and normally fade out.


Mae Sariang rain forecast for Wed 11th Jan 17 below


Green dot is Mae Sariang


wed ms low by Triangle Golden 007, on Flickr



Thur 12th Jan 17 forecast. If the low stays more south as it tracks east, you miss the rain.

wx ms thur 1pm by Triangle Golden 007, on Flickr




Thurs 12th Jan 17 night & by Friday, the low has tracked east, should leave bright blue skies and amazing viz with the vacuum dry air on the backside of the storm.


wx ms fri 1pm by Triangle Golden 007, on Flickr
 
Looks like the forecasting we made many days ago was right







South Thailand temporarily cut off?


"[FONT=&quot]Overland route from the South is closed at Ban Saphan near Prachuap as bridge is washed away. Nobody is getting through for the next few days at the least."[/FONT]
 
100% chance of rain forecast today, we had a small amount off and on but people staying in Khun Yuam arrived here soaking wet this evening, they had lots of rain yesterday and today
 
Captain_Slash said:
100% chance of rain forecast today, we had a small amount off and on but people staying in Khun Yuam arrived here soaking wet this evening, they had lots of rain yesterday and today
Click to expand...


Thursday 12th January 2017, still not looking good & Friday 13th January, 2017 still looking like storm has passed.


Forecast for Thursday 12th January 2017 below:


low wx thurs by Triangle Golden 007, on Flickr
 
End of the dry season in Thailand

Most years, we get a fierce rain storm before the Songkran Festival (second week of April).


Looking at the rain forecasts and there's a huge rain area to the east of Chiang Mai & chances of a rain storm Thursday 16th March 2017 evening (tonight) & Friday 17th March, 2017.


Below forecast weather map shows where the rain is tomorrow/ Friday 17th March, 2017


wx fri march 17 utc by Triangle Golden 007, on Flickr



The map below shows the possibility of a torrential rainstorm just to the east of Chiang Mai tonight/ Thursday 16th March, 2017


thurs 16 thai time utc +7 by Triangle Golden 007, on Flickr
 
[h=2]Weather and flood warnings continue nationwide despite downgrading of Talas[/h]

Below is the current weather (Wednesday 19th July, 2017) - Chaing Mai is the green dot

wx now by Triangle Golden 007, on Flickr




BANGKOK, 18th July 2017 (NNT) - The Meteorological Department has maintained warnings of flash floods in most regions despite Tropical Storm Talas being downgraded to a depression. Meanwhile, more water is being released into the Chao Phraya River in anticipation of heavy rains.

Water flow in the Chao Phraya River in the area of Nakhon Sawan province has been tracked at 1,262 cubic meters per second with releases upstream now at 1,392 cubic meters per second due to concerns that more rain is on the way.

Authorities in Ayuthaya province have asked that releases by the Royal Irrigation Department be capped at 1,500 cubic meters per second as torrents have already resulted in flooding in six districts of the province, impacting homes as well as farms and gardens.

In nearby Ang Thong, Governor Weerawut Putraseranee said today that waters have risen early this year, prompting his office to expedite preparations against flooding. The province has readied rapid response teams and equipment to assist areas not equipped to resist rising flood waters.

The entire northern region is on alert against mudslides and forest runoff with the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Office 10 in Lampang, saying that if rain exceeds 80 millimeters, an evacuation announcement will be made.

A warning issued by the Meteorological Department has indicated continuing heavy rains across Thailand with an emphasis on northern provinces such as Mae Hong Son, Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Lamphun, Lampang, Phayao, Phrae, Sukhothai, Tak and Kamphaengphet.
 
July 29, 2017

Flood warning


The Department Disaster Prevention and Mitigation on Friday (July 28) warned people in 36 provinces across the country to brace for flooding and mud slides as a result of heavy rain which will continue until Sunday.
The 36 provinces vulnerable to flash flood, overflowing rivers or mud slide are as follows:

  • Seven provinces in the North: Mae Hong Son, Uttradit, Sukhothai, Phitsanulok, Kamphaeng Phet, Phichit and Phetchabun.
  • Eighteen northeastern provinces: Loei, Nong Bua Lamphu, Udon Thani, Nong Khai, Bung Karn, Sakon Nakhon, Nakhon Phanom, Khon Kaen, Kalasin, Chaiyaphum, Maha Sarakham, Roi Et, Yasothon, Amnart Charoen, Nakhon Ratchasima, Buri Ram, Si Sa Ket and Ubon Ratchathani.
  • Five central provinces: Nakhon Sawan, Uthai Thani, Chainat, Lop Buri and Saraburi.
  • Three eastern provinces: Rayong, Chanthaburi and Trat
  • Three southern provinces: Prachuab Khiri Khan, Chumphon and Ranong.
The department reported that during July 5-27, over 1,400 villages in 37 provinces were flooded but the situation has eased in 21 provinces.
Meanwhile, the Meteorological Department issued a weather forecast at 5 pm on Friday, saying that there will be less rain in most parts of the northern, northeastern and eastern regions but with very heavy rain in some areas of the upper Northeast as a resulting of the weakening of low pressure cell from Sonca depression.
However, the Weatherman warned that areas already inundated should brace for possible flash flood in the next 1-2 days.
Areas that should brace for possible flash flood are:
Chiang Mai, Lamphun, Lampang, Nan, Phrae, Sukhothai, Tak, Kamphaeng Phet, Phitsanulok, Phichit and Phetchabun in the North, Chaiyaphum, Nong Bua Lamphu, Nong Khai, Bung Karn, Udon Thani, Khon Kaen, Sakon Nakhon, Nakhon Phanom and Kalasin in the Northeast.
The department warned small vessels not to venture out to the sea in northern Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea due to strong wind and high waves of 2-3 metres today and Saturday because of the strong southwestern monsoon which is looming over the Andaman Sea and the southern region.


Cr: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/warning-flooding-36-provinces/
 
No storms around north Thailand - Riding forecast looks good all the way through to Wednesday 16th August next week.


Obviously still a chance of a localized cloud burst, associated with rain clouds headed east from the Indian Ocean. Apart from that it looks like a great time to go riding, everywhere green & great viz-ability, you can get some perfect photo's.


Below a screen shot for the weather forecast Wednesday 16th August, 2017.

wed wx good by Triangle Golden 007, on Flickr
 
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